Introduction

Who Uses GoldPan?

GoldPan is a tool for achieving success on risky projects. Individuals can use it to plan small projects or their activities. Program Managers can use it to develop plans and schedules for major programs. Project Managers and Project Leads can use it to manage risks at any level. System Engineers can use it to develop and optimize technical solutions. Logistics Engineers can use it to develop system support and maintenance plans. GoldPan is designed to apply to all phases of the life cycle of a system, process or activity.

How Does GoldPan Save My Data?

GoldPan uses the Microsoft Access relational database (currently Access 97/2000) to organize scenarios. The GoldPan Database, “gpd” file type, identifies the database file. The database is completely open enabling you to use it in Microsoft Access with other software tools that you write. The database design is compatible with Microsoft Project 98 and 2000 Database files identified by the “mpd” file type. This allows you to import/export Microsoft Project “mpd” files into/from GoldPan “gpd” files.

What Kind of Scenarios Will GoldPan Handle?

GoldPan Scenarios are comprised of a Baseline Case and alternative Cases numbered sequentially from zero, all contained within a database file. Cases are complete projects, processes, or activities that can be selected from the tabs at the bottom of GoldPan. Normally when you define a project, process or activity, you will develop the initial plan, baseline it and then explore alternatives through cases. But you can also develop a program consisting of multiple projects and baseline it as a case. Or you can break a project, process, or activity into a number of separate cases. This decision is up to you.

Is There a Process I Can Follow in GoldPan?

As an aid to developing and analyzing scenarios, GoldPan includes a Quick Access Panel located at the far left. Later when you want more window space, you can hide the panel by un-checking the menu property, View/Quick Access Panel. The buttons of the Quick Access Panel are sequenced generally in the order in which you will develop and analyze scenarios. Notice that the buttons are two-state. When you click on a button it indents and a corresponding View is displayed. When you click on an indented button it pops out and the corresponding View is dismissed. When you click on a different button the previous button pops out and the new button indents showing the new View. While the Quick Access Panel allows you to follow a step-by-step process, the View, Reports and Tools Menu contains all of the tools and views you may want to use.

What Steps Do I Follow When Starting from Scratch?

Open GoldPan

Create a New Database - Select File/New/Database from the Menu Bar

Name the Analysis - In the New Project Database Dialog enter a database name appropriate to your mission or analysis, such as “MissionToMars,” or “MyDreamHouse,” or “MyVacation.”

Case Information - GoldPan will create the database and initialize it with the default Case000 titled “Project.”

Organize Scenarios - At this point you need to decide how you are going to break down your analysis into scenarios that you will be able to compare. Case000 will be where you develop your initial plan and obtain your first analysis. When you are ready to work on alternatives you can Baseline Case000 and use Copy to Case to make a complete replica for the next Scenario.

Import From Microsoft Project - If you already have a case defined in Microsoft Project you can import it using File/Import/Microsoft Project 2000. GoldPan will try to update an existing Case with a name matching the MS Project. Otherwise a new Case will be created. You can then delete the default case.

Case Information – This View allows you to enter or change the scenario information for the case selected from the tabs at the bottom of GoldPan. The important consideration here is what currency and currency denomination do you want to report. You can use Dollars, Deutsche Marks, English £, and one other currency of choice such as Euro, Yen, etc. You can create estimates in different currencies. GoldPan will perform currency conversions when calculating totals for the tasks in your plan. To get the latest currency rates select Help/Currency Quotes from the Menu Bar this will retrieve the latest quotes from the web. Select Tools/Currency Exchange Rates from the Menu Bar to save currency rate multipliers to your database. When you change rate multipliers you should select Tools/Recalculate Estimates to bring your plan up to date.

Plan and WBS – Using this View you create (1) an outline of activities and (2) a network of activities that allow GoldPan to time phase Cashflow (costs and revenues) over a Schedule. An outline of tasks is referred to as the Work Breakdown Structure or WBS for short. This is a Tree Structure with branches and leaves representing more detailed levels of Cashflow elements. These are referred to as WBS Elements. The network constrains the activities to follow a sequence according to their duration and precedence. GoldPan is flexible to allow you to construct a plan of activity any way you wish, but you will have to break it down using the outline and network representations.

Create the Schedule – After creating the outline and network for your plan you can have GoldPan calculate a schedule. There are two choices for scheduling, “as early as possible” or ASAP and “as late as possible” or ALAP. GoldPan calculates an ASAP schedule by starting non-critical tasks as soon as possible and calculates an ALAP schedule by starting non-critical tasks as late as possible. After creating/importing a schedule you can start using the Gantt View.

Create Aggregates – GoldPan counts your plan outline, or WBS, as an aggregate of activities. You can create other aggregates, for example all tasks that are the responsibility of a particular organization or individual referred to as Owners. Another common aggregate is by CLIN. The Toolbar below the Menu Bar contains five aggregate icons. Drag the mouse over these icons to identify them. Create aggregates by clicking on an icon. This places them into the Aggregate View browser on the left. Click on aggregate titles to rename them. Then use drag-and-drop to build up your aggregates hierarchically. For example B. Brown owns two deliveries each containing systems, products and activities. You can create as many different aggregates as you want even if they contain some of the same tasks. You will find them convenient for answering questions like, “how much risk is B. Brown responsible for versus M. Smith?”

Define Estimate Rules – You can skip this step if you already have estimates entered into the Cashflow column of the WBS. Before you can build estimates in GoldPan you will need to define estimating methods referred to as Rules in GoldPan. Rules are created using the Rule Builder Tool. The Rule Builder allows you to build complex estimating methods by means of sequential assertions – basically a simple programming language. Later in the Estimate Builder you use these Rules to tell GoldPan how to calculate the Cashflow and/or Duration for a given activity or task. Over time you will have a library of Rules so it is recommended that you create a separate GoldPan database to contain the Rule library. You can load the Rules from another GoldPan database file and use them for your estimating. However, you can no longer load Rules when any are in use. Your GoldPan includes a sample database, containing sample Rules for you to use and modify. Use Tools/Insert Rules and Rates to load them into your own Rule library.

Develop Estimates – You can skip this step if you already have estimates entered into the Cashflow column of the WBS. You use the Estimate Builder to attach estimates to tasks. You can attach as many estimates, based on different rules and currencies, to an activity or task as you want, but its important to attach them to the lowest level task you are willing to estimate. Furthermore an estimate can include as many line items using the same Rule as you need. You attach an estimate in the Estimate Builder Tool by clicking a task in the browser on the left. As you attach estimates you will notice that your plan is automatically recalculated.

Define Risks – Now that you have completed the plan for this case, you are ready to define the risks that may impact your plan in this scenario. As discussed later, you have four types of risks to choose from: Performance, Schedule, Cashflow, and Project Risks. In GoldPan these are What Ifs that have a negative impact on your plan, for example, what if the prototype engine fails to produce the required amount of thrust? In a future release of GoldPan you will be able define additional what ifs that allow you to optimize decisions. For example, what if your engine supplier fails to deliver the prototype on time? Let’s say there is a 1 in 1000 chance of this happening during the Engineering phase of the program. What options do you have if this happens? What impacts do your choices have on your plan?

Perform Analysis – Now that you have this scenario developed you turn to analysis and reporting. For this you can use a variety of tools found on the Tools Menu. Note that whenever you enter or modify risks GoldPan will calculate the Cashflow and Schedule Net Risk for each task and total them at each level of the WBS. If you have used the GoldPan scheduler a Risk Adjusted Plan and Schedule will also be automatically calculated. Net Risk is the calculation of the expected Cashflow and Schedule increase to your plan. The Risk Adjusted Plan and Schedule reflects the adjustment to your plan.

Repeat – You can continue to change your plan or consider an alternative scenario. To consider the next alternative, you have to baseline the first case. Then use Copy To Case to create the starting point for your next alternative. From then on you can choose any case to be the Baseline. The Baseline Case and an alternate Case are the subject of the comparisons you can review in GoldPan. Its important to note that a baseline in GoldPan is not the same as a baseline in MS Project. You can export any Case to MS Project. When exporting your results to MS Project. GoldPan exports the Plan and Schedule to the MS Project Baseline and the Risk Adjusted Plan and Schedule to the MS Project Current.